Nomura – The Week Ahead
This podcast provides a weekly preview of the major themes expected to influence global financial markets. The hosts discuss key economic data releases, central bank decisions, and other market-moving events. Each episode highlights the risks and opportunities that investors should track in the coming week, offering a concise outlook on what to watch.
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The Week Ahead - Back to School
US rate pricing remains volatile between key data releases and contrasting Fed speak, but tightening by the ECB looks much more certain. US jobs data were resilient, leaving the market awaiting inflation data to ascertain the Fed's next move. In Europe we preview the ECB's upcoming rate decision and talk about Scandinavian inflation. Across Asia, we look at inflation and trade data and focus on th
The Week Ahead – Going down to Jackson
Central banks and rates in the spotlight. For North America, we preview the Bank of Canada policy meeting, US payrolls data, and discuss the central bank gathering at Jackson Hole. In Europe, we conduct an inflation deep-dive and examine hawkish ECB communication. Across Asia, we preview policy meetings in Malaysia and New Zealand, and key data across the region. Chapters: US: 02:23, Rates Special
The Week Ahead - Hole-ding Out for a Hero
Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech comes into view, as do political risks in Europe and a range of Asian central banks. We discuss the Fed Chair's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, the likely Fed path and US-Canada trade. In Europe, political developments are on the agenda ahead of a plethora of elections in the next year. In Asia, we preview rate decisions in Korea, Thailand and the Philippin
The Week Ahead – Light on data and low on clarity
Preview of FOMC minutes, UK CPI, Riksbank, China activity data and BI, plus a special segment with Akshay Prasad, IWM Head of Investment Products & Advisory Solutions. We outline what to look out for in the FOMC minutes, UK CPI and labor market data, and the Riksbank decision. In Asia, we discuss China's tier-1 activity data and fiscal stimulus prospects, as well as the upcoming BI meeting. Spe
The Week Ahead - Up and Down
The uncertain oil outlook remains a key theme, while markets await the US CPI report for fresh Fed clues. In the US, we share our forecasts for the coming CPI and retail sales releases and our Fed outlook. In Europe, we preview the central bank meeting in Norway, August sentiment data and discuss the heatwave. In Japan, we examine the BOJ outlook, with fresh minutes to be released and following re
The Week Ahead – Mr Un-credible?
Markets start to question Fed credibility, fiscal issues stay in focus for the UK, while Japan's monetary and FX policy come into the spotlight. We discuss the Fed Chair's mixed messages and preview next week's labour market release. In our special UK segment, we reflect on the BoE's "dovish" hold and discuss fiscal plans under the new PM. In Asia, the BOJ and JPY intervention are in focus, and we
The Week Ahead – Managing a Litany of Risks
Preview of the Fed, BOE, BOJ and MAS and a segment discussing market risks with special guest Vijay Sundaram, Global Head of Front Office Risk & Control. We discuss the Fed and BOE remaining on-hold, US core PCE inflation easing, and the latest on UK fiscal plans. Central banks in Japan and Singapore are in focus; we think both are likely to pause, but it is a much closer call for MAS than BOJ. Sp
The Week Ahead - The World Turns
Europe comes back into focus ahead of the ECB and UK data, with a spotlight also on Korea and the "AI trade". For Europe, we look ahead to the ECB rate decision, preview UK inflation and labour market data, and discuss UK politics. In the US, we debate Fed Chair Warsh's recent comments and the latest soft inflation prints. In Asia, the focus is on Korea, the latest monetary policy decision and the
The Week Ahead – Déjà vu?
Focus swings back to the Middle East, while we keep an eye out for 2 central bank meetings and key data ahead. In the US, we preview US CPI, retail sales and the Bank of Canada policy meeting. In Europe, we touch on UK GDP data, and discuss politics in the UK and France. In Asia, we share our forecasts for key monthly activity and Q2 GDP data in China, inflation in India, and GDP growth in Singapo
The Week Ahead - A funny thing happened on the way to the forum
Following the Sintra Central Banking Forum, we discuss the ECB and Fed outlooks, and the impact of the latest labour market data on the latter. Fed Chair Warsh remains steadfast in avoiding forward guidance, but we see dovish hints in some of his comments. We look at the change in ECB rhetoric and softer inflation data which may signal only one more rate hike. In China, we focus on upcoming infla
The Week Ahead - The Second Wave
Tracking second-round inflation effects from oil, and a second round of USD strength. In the US, we examine the latest inflation clues, the Fed outlook and the coming payrolls report. In Europe, we preview the central bank gathering in Sintra, the ECB outlook and June inflation data. In Japan, we look at key activity data and policy developments, both monetary and fiscal. Across Asia, we preview P
The Week Ahead - Meet the New Boss
New Fed Chair Warsh moved markets meaningfully – we discuss how to think about US monetary policy from here. Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Chair caused a big reaction in markets; we outline what to expect from US monetary policy from here. In Europe, we look at the increasing divergence in our ECB and Bank of England rate calls. In Asia, we discuss Bank Indonesia's recent hikes and the upco
The Week Ahead - Special Edition - Conversations at NIFA 2026 Part 2
Dr. Leslie Teo, one of our eminent speakers at the Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA), discusses all things AI. Dr. Leslie Teo talks about his views on where economic value from AI is created over the long term and the monetization of large AI capex… as well as his thoughts on productivity gains to boost economic growth and where things stand on the 'job apocalypse" debate.
The Week Ahead - Not Rocking the Boat
This week, we expect on-hold decisions by the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI, but hikes by BOJ, BSP and CBC. We expect the Fed, BOE, SNB, Riksbank, Norges Bank, RBA and BI to all keep policy rates unchanged. By contrast, we see the BOJ, BSP, and CBC as likely to hike at a measured pace. Statements will be non-committal across the board, and all eyes on Fed Chair Warsh who will li
The Week Ahead Special Edition – Conversations at NIFA 2026
Eminent speakers at the Nomura Investment Forum Asia – Dr. Ng Eng Hen and Sir Richard Moore – discuss geopolitics, US-China relations, and the Middle East conflict. Dr Ng Eng Hen, formerly Singapore's Defence Minister, shares his thoughts on shifts in US policies and the implications for Asia. Sir Richard Moore, senior strategist at Sixth Street and former MI6 chief, weighs in on prospects of a lo
THE WEEK AHEAD – He Says, They Say
Uncertainty in the Middle East continues, as key central bank meetings approach. In the US, we examine the resilience of the economy and preview the upcoming CPI report. In Europe, we review recent inflation data and explain why we expect an ECB rate hike next week. In Japan, we preview the Q1 GDP report and take a close look at the BOJ. Across Asia, we share our take on key data coming out in Ja
The Week Ahead – Live from NIFA 2026 – Asia Rewired
We discuss the economic impact and investment opportunities of geopolitical transitions, China shock, and the AI revolution reshaping Asia. At the sidelines of Nomura's Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) in Singapore, we highlight key takeaways from our new anchor report "Asia Rewired." Shifts like the AI revolution and trade realignment are rewiring Asia, creating winners and losers as well as in
The Week Ahead - The Final Countdown
This week, geopolitical tensions may be cooling but the fallout is rising with growth, inflation and central bank reactions evolving rapidly. We look ahead to the US labour market data and the ongoing hawkish shift in Fed communications. In Asia, we preview the RBI's next meeting and look ahead at inflation data around the region. In Europe, we discuss what factors – such as inflation expectations
The Week Ahead - Adding Fuel To The Fire
This week, after a sharp rise in global bond yields, we await key inflation data in the US and Euro area, and discuss the fallout in Asia. We preview US core PCE and Euro area inflation, discuss a change in our Fed forecasts, and update on UK politics. In Asia, we preview decisions by the BOK and RBNZ, as well as core inflation in Singapore. And, in a special segment, Albert Leung, our Head of Asi
The Week Ahead - Holding Up
This week, in the US, we examine the health of the consumer and the challenges facing incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. In Europe and the UK, we examine UK politics, key incoming data and ECB communication. In Japan, we discuss economics and geopolitics, with the visit from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week. Across Asia, we share our take on key data coming out in Japan and China, touch
The Week Ahead – The End of the Beginning, or the Beginning of the End?
This week, in the US, we assess the latest strong/weak labour market data and look ahead to next week's inflation print. Politics is in focus in Asia, ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting and following India's state elections, with inflation data also due in both China and India. In Europe, we also discuss local politics in the UK and the recent changes to our ECB and BoE rate calls. Chapters: US: 2:00
The Week Ahead – Up and Up
This week, in the US, we recap the FOMC meeting and key data and look ahead to the coming Payrolls report. In Europe, we review the ECB and BOE policy announcements and outlook, and preview central bank meetings in Sweden and Norway. Across Asia, we preview earnings data in Japan and the upcoming central bank meetings in Malaysia and Australia. And in a bonus special interview, Jon Cohn discusses
The Week Ahead – Central Banks' Bigger Bark Than Bite
This week, we preview decisions from the Fed, ECB, and BOE, but expect no fireworks. In Asia, the BOJ may sound hawkish but BOT is likely dovish. In a special segment, our head of Global Macro Research, Rob Subbaraman, argues that the bark of central banks will be bigger than their bite. Chapters: US: 2:10; Europe: 8:37; Japan: 15:48; Asia: 20:28; Central Banks Special Segment: 22:48
The Week Ahead – Diverging Fortunes
This week, we discuss our views on the ceasefire from a US perspective, the latest from the Fed, and fiscal policy in Europe. Rate decisions in Indonesia and Philippines are the focus in Asia, with a hike seen from the latter. We preview key UK labour market and inflation data, and European surveys, ahead of the BoE's April meeting. Chapters: US: 1:43; Asia: 10:20; Europe: 17:03
The Week Ahead - It's a Fragile Truce
This week, we discuss our views on the ceasefire from a US perspective, the latest from the Fed, and fiscal policy in Europe. We preview key data such as China's Q1 GDP and India's March CPI, as well as the MAS decision. We feature our latest special reports on why China is looking resilient and whether Asian central banks will hike rates or not. Chapters: US: 1:51; Europe: 9:37; China: 15:41; As
The Week Ahead – They Think It's All Over...
This week, we look back at the effects already being felt across the global economy. In the US, we preview employment and inflation releases, and outline why we pushed back the timing of our Fed cut expectations. In Europe, we discuss the latest inflation data, how this shock differs from 2022, and the political response to recent developments. In Asia, we note that the shock is evolving into broa
Special Edition: Nomura Central Bankers' Seminar
With geopolitics and the US economy in focus at our Central Bankers' Seminar, we are delighted to bring two expert speakers to the podcast. Former Fed Governor and NEC Chair Lael Brainard discusses the outlook for the US economy and the path for the Federal reserve. Economic historian and geopolitical expert Niall Ferguson gives his views on the Iran war and how it will impact the geopolitical lan
The Week Ahead - Deal or No Deal?
This week, The Middle East conflict remains front and centre. In the US, we discuss the conflict and the health of the consumer and preview the March Payrolls report. In Europe, we compare the spike in oil and gas prices with the 2022 experience and examine recent survey and coming inflation data. Across Asia, we examine how the Middle East crisis is impacting China and Japan, and preview key dat
The Week Ahead - The Fallout from Epic Fury
This week, we discuss our views on the policy signals from recent decisions by the Fed, ECB and BOE. In the Middle East, we continue to monitor the impact of the Iran conflict on their respective economies, and any signs of possible de-escalatio, or not. We also have a special segment with Craig Chan, our global head of FX strategy, discusses which currencies could be vulnerable versus those that
The Week Ahead - Iran, Oil, and the Central Bank Response
This week, we preview central bank policy responses amid the elevated uncertainity in the Middle East. In the US, we see the economy as relatively insulated from Middle East turmoil and discuss likely FOMC communication next week. In Europe, we discuss the risk of earlier ECB rate hikes and delayed Bank of England rate cuts Across Asia, we expect a less dovish tone from Bank Indonesia, more hawkis
The Week Ahead – Stuck In The Middle With Crude
The markets are fixated on the Middle East, especially on how rising energy prices will impact inflation. We see challenges for the larger energy importers in Asia and Europe, and now expect the Bank of England to leave rates unchanged in March. In the US, we also discuss the downside miss to February's labour market data and preview next week's inflation print. Chapters: Middle East: 1:53; US: 1
The Week Ahead – Tariff Uncertainty is Back… Or Is It?
This week, we discuss US tariff policy and geopolitical risks in Iran while the US jobs report is on tap. We also preview the UK Spring Statement, the NPC meeting in China, and inflation data in Asia. Finally, we have a special segment with Tomochika Kitaoka, Chief Equity Strategist, on why he remains positive on the Japanese stock market. Chapters: US: 2:25; UK: 9:20; Asia: 13:45; Japan Special
The Week Ahead - Horsing Around: The Chinese New Year Begins at a Canter
This week, we examine coming US inflation and labour market data, and the Fed outlook following a hawkish set of minutes this week. In Europe, we discuss reports that President Lagarde could be leaving the ECB early and consider the growth and inflation outlook for the region. Across Asia, we preview the Bank of Korea and Bank of Thailand policy meetings, and examine key coming data in India, Japa
The Week Ahead - Taking it in Stride in the Year of the Horse?
This week, we discuss US labor markets and preview US core PCE, UK CPI and other key data in Europe. In Japan Post-election policies are in focus while RBNZ, BI and BSP decisions are on tap. In a special segment, we feature two anchor reports by our APAC rates strategists and their views on the outlook. Chapters: US: 2:36; Europe: 10:17; Japan: 15:38; Asia Rates Special: 20:40
The Week Ahead - A Dove in Hawk's Clothing?
This week, we discuss our new Bank of England view and the risks to euro area interest rates. In the US, the prospective Fed chair, labour market data and inflation are all in focus. In Asia, we preview elections in Japan and Thailand and how they may impact local economies and financial markets.
The Week Ahead - Whack-a-mole
This week, we discuss the weaker US dollar, as well as the FOMC meeting and payrolls data ahead. Also in focus is the announcement of an historic India-EU trade deal following an incredible 20 years of negotiation. We also look at monetary and fiscal matters in India, with the upcoming budget and central bank policy meeting. In Europe, we look out for the Bank of England and European Central Bank
The Week Ahead - Ice, Ice Maybe: US Geopolitics Special
In the aftermath of President Trump's Davos speech, we discuss his aims, the response from others and potential constraints. We also welcome guest speaker, Samira Fazili, Managing Director, US Public Policy and Government Affairs, to share her views on the latest geopolitical developments. In addition, we preview the FOMC decision where we see rates remaining unchanged albeit with some voting dis
The Week Ahead – It's One Battle After Another
We preview US core PCE, UK CPI, and China GDP, and discuss the latest on geopolitics and the Fed. In Japan, the BOJ is on the spotlight amid JPY weakness and prospects of snap elections. Norges Bank, CBRT, BI and BNM are also on tap with likely divergent forward guidance. Chapters: US: 01:55, Japan: 09:20, China & Asia: 15:40, Turkey, Europe & UK: 22:05.
The Week Ahead - Back with a Bang
We discuss US geopolitical developments and their potential economic impact, as well as the latest employment and inflation data. The Bank of Korea is likely to leave rates unchanged in January, but we also outline our more hawkish view for the 2026. In Europe, we preview the UK data releases, review euro area inflation and discuss prospects for closer UK-EU relations. Chapters: US: 02:10, Korea a
The Year Ahead – US and Canada
In the final instalment of our 2026 Outlook episodes, our Economists discuss the outlook and key risks for the US and Canada for the year ahead. We discuss the key drivers of our above consensus view on US growth, including fiscal support, diminishing trade risks, a rebounding labour market and strong consumer. We expect inflation to remain above target but think the Fed will cut twice in H2 unde
The Year Ahead – Europe & Türkiye
In the third of our 2026 Outlook episodes, we discuss the focus on fiscal policy, disinflation pressures and the major risks to the region in the year ahead. In the Euro Area, we see growth accelerating with supportive fiscal policy, but limited inflation pressure and no ECB rate changes. In the UK, we still expect another rate cut and see significant disinflation in the months ahead, with politic
The Year Ahead – Japan
In the second of our 2026 Outlook episodes, we focus on the year ahead outlook for Japan, which we expect to remain on a recovery path in 2026. Joined by guest speakers Yujiro Goto, Head of FX Strategy, Tomohaki Shishido, Senior Rate Strategist, and Tomochika Kitaoka, Chief Equity Strategist, our Economists share their top views on the economy, the risks to watch out for, and the implications on
The Year Ahead – Asia: Mind The Gap
In the first of our 2026 Outlook episodes, our Economists in Asia discuss Nomura's key macro and market views for the region in the year ahead. In China, we discuss the "great divide" and the challenging backdrop for policy makers. For India, we expect another Goldilocks year, with strong cyclical growth, low inflation and another RBI rate cut. Across the broad region, we forecast a year of div
The Week Ahead – Divided in December
December seems to have been marked by dissents and divisions within and among central banks across the globe. We discuss the impact of the Fed's cut on the US Dollar, as well as preview the upcoming jobs report and CPI data in the US after the government shutdown. We also preview our expectations of contrasting European Central Bank and Bank of England decisions, as well as Bank of Japan, Bank of
The Week Ahead – Fed Center
The Fed is firmly priced for a cut on 10 December. We preview the upcoming Fed meeting, risks, and discuss the board's potential composition in 2026. We speak with Yujiro Goto, Head of Japan FX Strategy, on how the Bank of Japan's rate pricing is evolving, and more broadly in Asia, we then discuss our 2026 outlook for the region. In Europe, the SNB is in focus alongside UK data and Scandinavian in
The Week Ahead – Giving Thanks
Equity markets and risk assets have had a couple of positive days this week, underwritten by the technology sector and by growing market expectations that the Fed will deliver a rate cut on 10th December. With this in mind, we discuss the Fed outlook and the latest US data, with US data taps turning back on post the government shutdown. In Europe, our focus is on inflation data and the UK budget.
The Week Ahead – Foggy and Frothy
It's been a roller coaster ride in equity markets this week, coinciding with the release of the long-awaited US jobs report. We discuss why we see the US jobs report as mixed, but supportive of our forecast that the Fed will pause in December. All eyes will be on the UK budget and why the fiscal tightening will be modestly backloaded. In Asia, the focus is on Q3 GDP growth in India, and we deep-di
The Week Ahead – Open For Business
The news of the week is confirmation of the end of the US government shutdown. In the US, we examine the coming dataflow as the government reopens and the outlook for Fed funds. Across Europe and Japan, there will be no shortage of data to look at next week. We discuss the inflation report in the UK, growth and inflation in Japan, and the Bank Indonesia policy meeting. Chapters: 01:27, Europe: 07:
The Week Ahead – Bubbles Bursting?
With equity markets and tech stocks wobbling, we welcome guest speaker, Charlie McElligott, Cross-Asset Macro Strategist at Nomura, to discuss what is driving equity markets and what to watch in terms of "bubble risk". In the week ahead, politics is still front and center in the US. We discuss the impact of the ongoing shutdown and tariffs. In Europe, we explain how we are viewing the next steps i
The Week Ahead – Fed Trick or Tariff Treat
On the one hand, President Trump's trip to Asia resulted in some trade deals including with China, broadly in line with expectations but nonetheless were welcome news for markets. On the other hand, the hawkish twist by the Fed was a surprise, which led to a strengthening of the US dollar and a rise in Treasury yields. We explain why we no longer expect a cut by the Fed in December but still see t
The Week Ahead – Locked and Loaded
With the US government shutdown continuing, we've had only limited US data to look at over recent weeks, but that has only increased the focus on geopolitics. This week our focus will be very much on central banks, as we track four of the major central banks which are set to announce rate decisions next week. In the US, a 25bp rate cut from the Fed seems locked and loaded. We also discuss the Bank
The Week Ahead – Raw Deal on Rare Earths
US-China trade tensions have returned to the spotlight, and we discuss the economic impact from both perspectives as markets await the news on whether we will see further escalation or a softening in tone. In Europe, the UK remains in focus ahead of two significant event risks coming into view, with the Bank of England meeting on 6 November and the budget on 30 November. Yujiro Goto, Head of Japa
The Week Ahead – More Political Shockwaves
Politics continue to take centre stage, with the shocking LDP election result in Japan and the resignation of the French Prime Minister after less than 4 weeks in office. The EUR has weakened as a result, while USD/JPY has surged. We discuss the main policy features of 'Sanaenomics', the implications for the BOJ, and what to expect from the political developments in France. Our guest speaker, Sami
The Week Ahead – Shutdown!
For financial markets and economists, the main near-term challenge of the US government shutdown is a lack of data. The longer the shutdown rumbles on, the larger the potential negative economic consequences. In Europe, we are moving firmly into budget season, putting fiscal policies at the top of the agenda. In Asia, it is all about central bank meetings, with the Philippines, Thailand and New Ze
The Week Ahead – Course Correction?
In previous weeks, the Fed's easing expectations appear to have been driving all markets, sending equities higher, credit spreads tighter, and the USD and US yields lower. However, better US data this week have resulted in some rate cut expectations to unwind. Markets will be in for another big test next week, with the US Payrolls report and the significant risk of a US government shutdown. We pre
The Week Ahead – Connecting The Dots
Following the Fed's decision to cut by 25bp, we discuss why we now expect substantially more rate cuts in 2025-26, and the impact of the appointment of a new Fed chair in coming months. In Europe, we preview the on-hold decisions we expect from both Swiss National Bank and Riksbank next week. In Asia, we put a spotlight on Indonesia. In this episode, we also speak with Yusuke Miyairi, our G10 FX s
The Week Ahead – Three From Seven
We are tracking seven central bank meetings next week, and expect rate cuts from three. The Fed policy meeting next week is in full focus, against a highly unusual backdrop. This week we discuss an expected rate cut in the US and Canada. Across Europe, we forecast a rate cut in Norway, but not in the UK. Meanwhile in in Asia, we examine China activity data, the Bank of Japan and the latest politic
The Week Ahead – Politics Takes Centre Stage
With the August labour market having been released in the US, we provide a reaction on the data, alongside next week's CPI and potential political pressures which could influence the Fed. In Europe, we focus on the French confidence vote and the ECB meeting on Thursday. In Asia, we talk politics in Japan and ASEAN, and how this may impact central bank policy in the months ahead. Chapters: US: 01:5
The Week Ahead – Hiring and Firing
It's another big week ahead with all eyes on the US jobs report and on-going headlines regarding the firing of Fed Governor Cook. In Europe, we discuss upcoming inflation data, some central bank divergence, and the potential fallout from the vote of confidence in France. In Asia, the focus is on China's growth outlook and Beijing's likely policy strategy amid a strong rally in equity markets. Fina
The Week Ahead – Beyond Jackson Hole
We discuss Fed Chair Powell's long-awaited speech at the annual central bank gathering in Jackson Hole. In Europe, our focus is on the ECB and European inflation trends, and we touch on the Russia-Ukraine war and economic implications. Then across Asia, we examine key coming data in China and Japan, and central bank meetings in Korea and the Philippines. Featuring a special segment, we welcome Jon
The Week Ahead – Fed Ahead
This week, we explain the change in our Fed call following the latest inflation data, as well as the latest views on China, and the UK. We have brought forward our call for the next Fed cut to September, following slightly dovish inflation details for July. China remains mired in low inflation and soft growth; we discuss what the rest of H2 has in store. In Europe, we look at the latest and upcomi
The Week Ahead – Dual Mandate Pressure
In the week ahead, all eyes will be on US CPI data which is likely to tick up. We preview the key data releases from the UK and Europe, as well as the Norges Bank decision coming up. We discuss the contrasting outcomes that we expect from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Thailand. Finally, in a special segment in this episode, we focus on the US Dollar and why keeping a soft medium-te
The Week Ahead – Is Trump Winning?
Following the 15% tariff announced for Europe, further tariff rate announcements for India and South Korea have followed. For global markets, our focus remains on tariff announcements, key macro data and central banks. In this episode, we discuss these developments, as well as the Bank of England policy meeting, where a rate cut is widely expected. In Asia, the focus is on a policy meeting in Indi
The Week Ahead – I'm Kind of a Big Deal…
Following a number of trade deals announced in the last week, financial markets seem to be taking the news in a positive manner with equity markets continuing to edge higher and bond yields remaining in fairly narrow ranges. However, one bond market that has stood out is Germany where yields have jumped following hawkish ECB commentary after their July rate meeting, which we discuss in this episod
The Week Ahead – Signs of Tarifflation
This week's key themes include US inflation and the Fed, the ECB decision and EU tariffs, and China's growth outlook. We discuss how tariffs are starting to impact US inflation data, preview the ECB decision and how the 30% tariff threats on the EU could affect that outcome, as well as share views on Japan's upper house election and whether a weak growth outlook China could prompt policy response.
The Week Ahead – Trump, Tariffs and the Fed
Key global market themes remain centred around US tariff announcements, possible trade deals, and the Fed. This week we saw President Trump announce higher tariff rates on a number of countries. We discuss these developments, what comes next, and key data and events to look out for over the coming week, as well as UK debt metrics and the outlook for China and Indonesia. Chapters: (US: 01:40, Europ
The Week Ahead – Independence Trade
The UK saw another round of combined sterling and gilt weakness, a pattern which is becoming worryingly familiar. Politics elsewhere seemed to have run a bit more smoothly with the US budget bill passing through the Senate and House, teeing up some degree of fiscal expansion for the year ahead. Tariffs remain on the agenda for the week ahead, as we approach the 9 July deadline. In Asia, we focus o
The Week Ahead - Some Semblance of Calm
Tensions in the Middle East have eased but we enter the month of July with other flashpoints to watch. In the US, all eyes on labor market data, the Fed, and prospects of passing the One Big Beautiful bill. CPI data across Europe and the ECB forum in Sintra are on tap, while Germany approved a big budget. In Asia, we expect still-benign inflation and discuss trade deal prospects and our change in
The Week Ahead – Tensions Rising
Market dynamics in the last week have been dominated by developments in the Middle East, where the ongoing military action between Israel and Iran continues to have a notable impact on investor risk sentiment and oil prices. In the US and Europe, we dissect a week of central bank decisions, including the Fed and the Bank of England. In Asia we look at how trade is evolving and discuss local politi
The Week Ahead – Deal or No Deal?
Ongoing trade deal developments remain the largest driver of global markets right now. Our focus next week will be on the G7 Summit in Canada, to see if there are any further trade developments. We look ahead to central bank meetings in Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Japan, as well as fresh ECB communication and policy meetings across the UK, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Chapters: US (0
The Week Ahead – Live from NIFA 2025
In this episode, we discuss our high conviction views and the second half outlook presented at our flagship Nomura Investment Forum Asia (NIFA) which recently took place in Singapore. Key themes at the conference were centered around US trade and fiscal policy, tensions with China, geopolitical risks, and de-dollarization. We also discuss how the rest of the world, as well as market participants,
The Week Ahead – Sell America?
There has been a few surprises this week highlighting the unpredictable and unconventional nature of US policy making. For the week ahead, our focus will be on the May Payrolls report in the US and the Bank of Canada policy decision. In Europe, we take a look at the impact of tariffs and geopolitics from a European perspective, and also discuss the policy meeting in India, earnings data in Japan a
The Week Ahead – Big and Beautiful
It has been another big week in markets. We discuss US fiscal developments and how the Fed might respond as well as preview US inflation data. In focus for the week ahead is also central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, alongside India's growth outlook. In Europe, we discuss recent signs of softening of inflation and why the ECB still has room to cut rates. Chapters: US (0
The Week Ahead – De-Escalation
This week started with a bang after the sharp de-escalation of US and China tensions, with both sides agreeing to reduce tariffs in the next 90 days. We discuss the near-term economic implications, as well as the prospects of reaching a more lasting trade deal. We also preview upcoming UK CPI and European survey data and whether trade talks with Europe can also make progress. We end with a special
The Week Ahead – Highly Uncertain
In the week to date, the major themes remain around tariffs, policy and uncertainty, and what central banks will make of it all. Weaker growth but higher inflation could leave central banks in a tricky spot. In the week ahead, our focus in the US will be on April retail sales and CPI, and the latest tariff developments. In Europe, we recap the central bank meetings over the past week and look ahea
The Week Ahead – Central Banks Stay The Course
The focus this week turns to central banks. We discuss the Fed staying on-hold amid likely more pressures from Trump, and the uncertain outlook for US tax policy which is becoming a top legislative priority. We also discuss our expectations for the Bank of England, Norges Bank and Riksbank which could have diverging decisions but some risk of a dovish tone, as well as Beijing's latest stance on de
The Week Ahead – Bouncing Back
As trade tensions show signs of softening and financial markets stabilise, we discuss the recent changes to our central bank views for both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, and outline our thinking on recent US-Japan trade negotiations. In this episode, we also preview the upcoming US labour market data and discuss what the election in Canada may mean for the economy and markets. Chap
The Week Ahead – Uneasy
We have seen some calm return this week, which has coincided with President Trump making some tariff concessions for tech companies and for auto parts, suggesting that a 'Trump put' is in play, and with the President also signalling "big progress" in talks with Japanese officials. However, we have to say this is an uneasy calm; new sectoral tariffs are still likely coming and tensions with China r
The Week Ahead - Something's Gotta Give
Global financial markets remain on edge after a rebound from the 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs for most countries except China. In this episode, we discuss the path forward for negotiations with US trade partners. We also discuss Europe's changing stance to negotiate rather than retaliate, and the ECB looking set to cut again next week. In Asia, we outline the posture from Beijing, with th
The Week Ahead - Tariff Turmoil
It's been another tumultuous week in financial markets following President Trump's tariff announcements on 2nd April. Tariffs were broad and generally larger than expected and financial markets did not digest them all that well, although some resilience in US labour market data appears to be curbing some of the downside for now. In this episode, we will go into the detail of what trade policy is b
